A Linear model for splitting 1 Ö 1 death counts 44
نویسندگان
چکیده
This version of the Human Mortality Database Methods Protocol (Version 6) introduces two changes to the way mortality rates and life tables are constructed. First, a new method is implemented to calculate a0, the mean age at death for children who died in their rst year of life. This was motivated by the fact that, in low mortality populations, the Coale and Demeny formula used until now in the HMD tended to under-estimate a0. Detailed rationale and the equations connecting a0 with infant mortality are provided in the study by Andreev and Kingkade (2015). Implementation of this method is described in section 7.1 below. Second, birth-by-month data have been collected and are now used to more accurately estimate population exposures. Until now, we used the classic approach which assumes that births are uniformly distributed throughout the calendar year. In the event of a sharp discontinuity in the monthly distribution of births within a calendar year, this assumption results in the incorrect estimation of population exposures and induces false cohort e ects on mortality surfaces when these surfaces are based on Lexis squares. Within the HMD universe, the non uniform distribution of births has been most pronounced at the beginning and at the end of the rst and second World Wars in many European countries. More details on the new method are provided in section 6 and Appendix E below.
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